Posted by on April 20, 2017 at 10:22 am

Dr Robert Nicholls

Dr Robert Nicholls is an affiliate of the University of Huddersfield.  Here, in a blog written about the snap general election to be held in June, he says the opinion polls will most likely say it is going to be a Tory landslide victory but don’t hold your breathe because as we saw in the last general election, those polls were way off.

“Prime Minister May has today (18 April 2017) called a snap general election to be held on 8th June this year.

If the opinion polls and most of the media are to be believed, then the Conservatives should expect to achieve a landslide victory.

This may not necessarily be the case however, and there can be a certain amount of optimism for the opposition parties – particularly Labour and the LibDems. If these opposition parties can turn the forthcoming election into what amounts to a re-run of the 2016 EU referendum then they have a fighting chance of victory. Basically, if voters want a continuation of a Conservative government with the certainty of a clean Brexit which would include exiting the Single Market, then clearly they should vote Conservative.  If however, they want either a ‘soft’ Brexit or even no Brexit at all then a vote for an opposition party would be a more suitable option. This is assuming that Brexit is the issue of most concern to the electorate.

It is of course, not that straightforward. The Labour Party is deeply and very publicly divided with a leader seemingly popular only with Labour members and activists. It may be that if Brexit is the issue that decides this election, then the LibDems could dramatically improve their prospects.

To conclude, on the face of it, the likelihood is a thumping victory for the Tories. As we saw in the last general election however, opinion polls can be way off, and, if this election is to be fought over Brexit then it is still all to play for.”


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