North fights to keep HS2 on the rails

Is HS2 going to be derailed? 

“In November 2013, in conjunction with the Yorkshire Post, a one-day conference on HS2 and the North was held at this University.  At the time, my view (which can be seen below) was that this was a much-needed project that would boost the northern economy and generate national growth away from the ridiculously crowded London and South East regions.  I was not the only one who made this point.  Others, including so-called rail consultants, were lobbying for HS2 to be scrapped and for funding to be reallocated for improvements to ‘local’ rail links, in particular across the North from the Mersey to the Humber. 

Six years on, the only thing to report is that the future of HS2 north of Birmingham is now in serious doubt.  Funds have already been allocated to the project south of Birmingham and construction work has already started, although the final cost has escalated to £56bn and could be greater.  I cannot see this arm being scrapped now.  A worry for us is that statutory provision for the northern arm from Birmingham to Leeds and Crewe has not yet been approved by parliament.  Could this and escalating costs indicate the end of the line? 

The situation is even more complicated.  Northern Powerhouse Rail is pushing hard for HS3 and not HS2.  HS3 is a plan to upgrade and invest in the transPennine rail network which requires even more capacity to meet the growing needs of commuters and other travellers – their plan would be for the Manchester-Leeds route to be via the Calder Valley, not via Huddersfield.  For many, this makes much more sense than investing in HS2 which at best they may only use very occasionally.  As an economist, I feel it would be very interesting to compare the benefit cost ratios of the two schemes. 

The crunch is likely to come in this autumn’s spending review.  Rumours abound.  One widely held view is that the Birmingham-London section will be downgraded – slower train speeds and a London terminus at Old Oak Common (not Euston) to link with the delayed and over-budget Crossrail.  This could then trigger the end of HS2 north and funds being allocated to HS3.  Given the political plight of the Tories ‘up north’, this could be seen as a shrewd move. 

Have I changed my view since 2013?  Yes, but only to one where I would like to see both HS2 north and HS3 given the green light.  We need additional capacity on both routes.  Moreover, transport investment in the North, in aggregate and per head terms, has consistently lagged behind that for London and parts of the South East.  So, is it not about time we got a bigger share of transport spending?  Not forgetting that such investment would be long term and entirely consistent with the need for a more sustainable transport policy.” 

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