Holidays after lockdown, but not like we know them

“In 2001, following 9/11, I wrote a feature for a newspaper about the likely impact on holiday travel and the future viability of airlines.  At that time, Ansett (Australia), Swissair and Sabena (such a bad experience never again) were amongst the casualties and were later re-invented.  Major US carriers such as Continental, Delta and US Airways cut services and laid off thousands of employees as did British Airways and Aer Lingus.  In 2008, I wrote a further article on the impact of the global financial crisis.  This time, it was Eos Airlines, Oasis Hong Kong, Silverjet, XL and Zoom that ceased trading, mainly due to a fall in demand and rising fuel prices.

2020 is different.  The entire global aviation sector is under threat.  Even before the Covid-19 pandemic, Thomas Cook, Flybe and Wow Air had gone out of business.  Now there is a situation where an ever-growing list of national carriers is asking for, but not always receiving, government support.  These airlines include Delta, Lufthansa, Swiss, Emirates and Norwegian.  In addition, low-cost carriers such as easyJet and Ryanair have furloughed thousands of staff and are unlikely to start up again until the end of May at the earliest.  BA has just announced a huge number of redundancies.  In a matter of a few weeks, the global air market has collapsed.  The impact on holiday destinations and international business travel is impossible to calculate.

Unlike 2001 and 2008 when recovery followed, there is a widely held view that the ‘new normal’ will not be what we have been used to.  Social distancing will need to addressed especially in economy class and on low-cost carriers.  Various suggestions have been put forward although none has yet been approved.  For airlines that have been used to filling at least 85% to 90% of seats, a reduction in seat capacity can only mean one thing – higher fares.  Alongside this, many routes could disappear along with smaller regional airports that only serve holiday destinations.

So, what does this ever-changing picture mean for our holiday plans?  The EU Commission has said they are keen to see Europeans holiday in Europe without too many cross-border controls.  The Commission have even suggested that they will be happy to include we Brits in this agreement.

There are positives that we need to think about.  If flights do begin in June, then tourist hot spots such as Venice, Florence, Madrid, Budapest and Dubrovnik are likely to be less crowded with fewer American and Asian tourists.  Older travellers though may still be a bit scared and reluctant to fly.  At home, cities such as York, Cambridge, Edinburgh and Oxford will be less busy than usual and well worth a visit.

But, come on.  Let’s not forget about ‘God’s own county’.  Many more of us will become ‘staycationists’, possibly for the first time in many years.  We sometimes forget the treasures on our own doorstep.  Scarborough, Whitby and Brid are within easy reach.  Businesses will be delighted to welcome us.  Welcome back in some cases.  Just think about fish and chips in Whitby, a boat trip in Scarborough or Bridlington or a more leisurely visit to Castle Howard or Harewood House.”